1971 and Birth of Bangladesh-1

Hello friends, it looks like all spotlight has been shifted to Bengal in the last few weeks. Not only West Bengal elections, but also India- Bangladesh relations are going to be the center of focus for the next few weeks. Bangladesh is celebrating 50 years of liberation in the next week. India and Bangladesh are also commemorating 50 years of relations. Plus it is the centenary birth anniversary of Shiekh Mujibur Rehman, widely popular as the creator of Bangladesh.

In this context, let's take a look at 50 years back and discuss the story of the birth of Bangladesh.

(Source-The Indian Free Press)

India got independence in 1947. The Partition created the State of Pakistan. It was divided into two parts, West Pakistan and East Pakistan. East Pakistan was created by partitioning Bengal province. East Bengal went to Pakistan and West Bengal remained in India.

Now, this is what we all know generally. In 1948 itself, Pakistan Governor-General Mohmmand Ali Jinnah declared that "Urdu and only Urdu" would be the federal language of Pakistan. This caused turmoil in East Pakistan where most of the people spoke Bengali. 56% of the total population of Pakistan were Bengalis.

(Source- BBC)

The movement began. It was Bengali Language Movement by civil society.  Its demand was Bengali along with Urdu should be the federal language. The movement reached a climax on 21st February 1952. Police fired on protesters in which several died. This day is celebrated as Language Movement Day in Bangladesh. Now it is remembered all over the world as International Mother Language Day.

East Pakistan had the disadvantage of not having cities like West Pakistan which have the concentration of economic and political power. The economy was mainly agrarian resulting in local clashes, instability. Most of the businesses were in West Pakistan. In the military as well, East Pakistani had only 5% officers of the total. Pakistan's federal government considered only Pathans and Punjabis as martial races, not Bengalis. It used to humiliate the Bengali population wherever possible.

Ideologically, Pakistan was established as an Islamic state. East Pakistani population agreed to this to some extent. However, their Bengali identity remained strong. Awami League, a party of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman started to preach secular agenda opposed to West Pakistan's Islamism. Language Movement also gave air to this feeling of "Being more Bengali Muslim than being Pakistani Muslim."

Shaheed Minar- Dhaka
A monument which commemorates martyrs of Language Movement Day

Politically, West Pakistani presidents who were mostly military dictators always undermined or deposed East Pakistani Prime Ministers.(President was the highest constitutional authority). Population and politicians of East Pakistan were angry because of these. 

In these backdrops, elections took place in 1970. Awami League had won the majority of 167 seats of 169 seats in East Pakistan out of total 313 seats. It was expected that Shiekh Mujibur will be Prime Minister. However, former foreign minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto opposed this. Negotiations took place under President Yahya Khan, the military dictator. The outcome was Bhutto to be President and Mujibur to be Premier. When the actual possibility of Mujibur taking over as Premier began to rise, West Pakistani commanders began actions. It was March 1971.

The actual war story began from here. Bangladesh was born after 9 months when the Instrument of Surrender was signed by Pakistani military forces with the Indian forces and Bangladeshi Liberation Forces. Let's look at those months and the role of India in those in the next article.

A (Love?) Story of An Elephant and A Bear-3

Hello friends, see the story so far. Here we enter into the current state of affairs of an elephant and a bear. On the dice of the world, tug of war between USA and China, an emerging construct of Indo- Pacific, adolescent QUAD are deciding rules of the game. Our elephant and Bear are active participants in this.

These dynamics of world politics significantly shape, configure and decide bilateral discourse. Of course, keeping national interests in mind. It is argued that Russia is an all-weather friend of India. PM Modi in his visit to Moscow in 2019 commented, "Every child in India knows who is a real friend of India." He also asserted that One old friend is always better than two new friends. These remarks came in the context of the gradual diversion of India from Russia to USA as well as a frequent exchange of good looks between Russia and China.

As argued in the previous article, Russia's primary interest in India is its huge defense market. Russia can cater to its economic needs through arms sales. Though the defense relations remain strong, India has gradually diversified its defense imports to USA. Russia is not-so-happy over this.

Another part of a test of this friendship is the increasing closeness of Russia and China. Both are aiming to target the West eventually. The question remains, however, given the bullying attitude of the Chinese, will Russia accept itself as a Junior Partner in the relations? In case yes (which is less probable), then Elephant will start aligning itself more with USA exactly opposite to 1971 when USA+China and India+ USSR situation unfolded.

Now, the new construct of Indo Pacific and its child- QUAD mark another area of concern for Russia- India ties. Seeing the recent atmosphere, it's possible that QUAD will become more formalized than summit level. This means going more closer than ever to USA. Russia and China's alliance will grow stronger in that case.

However, given the circumstances, India cannot leave its old friend. Our interests are entangled with Bear. Increasing energy needs new resources apart from renewables to keep the economy working. Russia's Ural and the Far East are regions where potential sources lie. ONGC Videsh has already invested in the Far East. 

Russian Far East
(Source- Wikipedia)

Proposed International North-South Pipeline which passes through Russia, Central Asia, Afghanistan is also crucial for Indian industry. Good ties with Russia will be crucial to realize this project.

Lastly, the dire situation in Afghanistan and changing geostrategy of West Asia means giving importance to Russia who is closely involved in this region. USA is already signaling a withdrawal from Afghanistan at the earliest. A possible outcome of this will be powerful

Taliban can threaten Indian borders through Jihadists same way it did in 2001. Cooperation with Russia with its own Indian strategy will be helpful to tackle the possible threat.

 Sad Faces (Global Times) 

The eternal question is does going closer to USA mean going far from Russia? No. The foundations of relations are strong where adequate institutional mechanisms are placed to discuss, debate, and negotiate any concern. Recent visits of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Foreign Secretary Harsh Sringla, S-400 deal despite American sanctions are symbols of this. Even if India has become a partner of USA,it still remains a friend of Russia as well.

The love story of an elephant and a bear has come so far. How it goes further or doesn't go..time will tell. The question mark in the title was for is it really a love story or pure transactional attitude? The question is difficult and complex to answer. what do you think? Please share your views in the comment box.

Thank you.

A (Love?) Story of An Elephant and A Bear-2

Hello friends, as we discussed last time, by 1991, the clouds of doubt hung over the Indo-Russian relations. The end of the cold war left no significance to Non-Alignment Movement. More than that, Russian policy circles were divided on future strategy.

The most dominant group of Andrew Koyzev and Boris Yeltsin was Pro-Western and had strong reservations about India.

In this atmosphere, India found itself in an economic crisis. The only option left was to start getting the attention of USA and its help to come over the crisis.

USA started doing arm twisting of both Russia and India.It put pressure on Russia to cancel the cryogenic engine deal with India(1993). Pakistan entered in the scene as both US and Russia found it useful to deal with Mujahiddins in Afghanistan.

The conundrum was of a very serious nature for India. PM P.V.Narsimha Rao decided to move forward with precision and caution. All party consensus was built to take efforts to woo Russia for its importance from a defense angle. USA was to be approached for economic investments.

The notable thing here is that P.V. actively took consult and cooperation of the leader of Opposition, Atal Bihari Vajpayee during these efforts. Vajpayee also led a delegation to Russia sending a message that politically India stands united.

Few Years later. Pro western group was out of power. Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer took over as a President of Russia(1999).

Putin era saw an opportunity to improve relations especially by selling arms to India to recover its economy which was in shackles since the 1990s. Putin initiated Multi-Vector Foreign Policy- entering into negotiations with multiple countries at the same time.

India- Russia entered into Strategic Partnership in 2000 and in 2010, it was upgraded to Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. 

This decade also saw cooperation on multilateral forums like BRICS, UN, etc. Annual Summit is the highest level institutional mechanism to discuss, debate, and dialogue mutual concerns. The Summit also was fully functional in these years and remains so.

The decade gave the status of Time Tested Partnership to Indo- Russia relations. This remains so. However, the rise of China and Russia's Going Closer approach towards China has cast clouds of doubt. India's closeness with USA added more seriousness to the game.

The Classic Dilemma of a hug
(Source-Satish Acharya)

In the current state of affairs, how India is playing out the game with Russia or vice versa, Lets see in the next article.