Hello friends, see the story so far. Here we enter into the current state of affairs of an elephant and a bear. On the dice of the world, tug of war between USA and China, an emerging construct of Indo- Pacific, adolescent QUAD are deciding rules of the game. Our elephant and Bear are active participants in this.
These dynamics of world politics significantly shape, configure and decide bilateral discourse. Of course, keeping national interests in mind. It is argued that Russia is an all-weather friend of India. PM Modi in his visit to Moscow in 2019 commented, "Every child in India knows who is a real friend of India." He also asserted that One old friend is always better than two new friends. These remarks came in the context of the gradual diversion of India from Russia to USA as well as a frequent exchange of good looks between Russia and China.
As argued in the previous article, Russia's primary interest in India is its huge defense market. Russia can cater to its economic needs through arms sales. Though the defense relations remain strong, India has gradually diversified its defense imports to USA. Russia is not-so-happy over this.
Another part of a test of this friendship is the increasing closeness of Russia and China. Both are aiming to target the West eventually. The question remains, however, given the bullying attitude of the Chinese, will Russia accept itself as a Junior Partner in the relations? In case yes (which is less probable), then Elephant will start aligning itself more with USA exactly opposite to 1971 when USA+China and India+ USSR situation unfolded.
Now, the new construct of Indo Pacific and its child- QUAD mark another area of concern for Russia- India ties. Seeing the recent atmosphere, it's possible that QUAD will become more formalized than summit level. This means going more closer than ever to USA. Russia and China's alliance will grow stronger in that case.
However, given the circumstances, India cannot leave its old friend. Our interests are entangled with Bear. Increasing energy needs new resources apart from renewables to keep the economy working. Russia's Ural and the Far East are regions where potential sources lie. ONGC Videsh has already invested in the Far East.
Proposed International North-South Pipeline which passes through Russia, Central Asia, Afghanistan is also crucial for Indian industry. Good ties with Russia will be crucial to realize this project.
Lastly, the dire situation in Afghanistan and changing geostrategy of West Asia means giving importance to Russia who is closely involved in this region. USA is already signaling a withdrawal from Afghanistan at the earliest. A possible outcome of this will be powerful
Taliban can threaten Indian borders through Jihadists same way it did in 2001. Cooperation with Russia with its own Indian strategy will be helpful to tackle the possible threat.
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| Sad Faces (Global Times) |
The eternal question is does going closer to USA mean going far from Russia? No. The foundations of relations are strong where adequate institutional mechanisms are placed to discuss, debate, and negotiate any concern. Recent visits of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Foreign Secretary Harsh Sringla, S-400 deal despite American sanctions are symbols of this. Even if India has become a partner of USA,it still remains a friend of Russia as well.
The love story of an elephant and a bear has come so far. How it goes further or doesn't go..time will tell. The question mark in the title was for is it really a love story or pure transactional attitude? The question is difficult and complex to answer. what do you think? Please share your views in the comment box.
Thank you.
I think it is a pure transactional attitude. If we look back we can find direct link between winning of Taliban in Afghanistan and pulwama attack in India. Russia there in Afghanistan only for ensure that Islamic militancy does not reach to its troubled regions Chechnya and Dagestan. There is a proxy war going between Russia and USA in Afghanistan and Russia is doing what USA doing in syria. Now coming back towards India-Russia, in present context after considering military exercises between Russia and Pakistan if we want to interpret earlier relation between India and Russia there is huge probability that this relations are nothing but a pure transactional attitude, Russia's huge interest in India is nothing but defense market....
ReplyDeleteOne can not be sure in politics abouts his interpretations so as per my knowledge it is a transactional attitude...
yes Vedant, transactional attitude is there not only in Russia but in every country's policy. Somebody commented that its better to be transactional than sentimental in politics..may be Russia is following that :)
DeleteRegarding Taliban, one cannot directly link Taliban and Pulwama. But its true that India have suffered a lot because of Russia-American complex involvement in Afghanistan.
Thanks for your response.keep commenting :)
Theres no reason to believe that the sanctity of the revered relationship between New Delhi and Moscow would be desecrated due to any uncomfortable factors to Moscow (eg Quad), and even if at all it happens then it's an implicit and overt assumption that QUAD has the potency to turn this placid weather into a divisive thunderstorm, so no I think that it definately goes beyond Transactions and Agreements and spills to a shared narrative of history ensconed in mutual understanding of concerns and ambitious. After all New Delhi would excercise the requisite rectitude to strike a balance between temptations like Quad and responsibilities of maintaining old relationships
ReplyDeleteyes.Its kind of mix between transactional and norms-history based approach. Recently, a former diplomat responded to this question of whether Russia or USA ," You see the map of world and see where Russia is, you will get an answer."
DeleteThank you so much for response. keep commenting.
a very insightful article, keep it up👍🇮🇳
ReplyDelete