Hello friends, as newspaper columns are filling up about the Afghan situation, let's bring it to our attention as well. As we discussed previously, the US has announced its withdrawal. It was clear that US troops will leave Afghan land by September 11, twenty years after 9/11. However, the pullout began early. As the US claims that 90% of its troops have left Afghanistan, the Taliban is claiming to hold 85% of the ground in the graveyard of empires. Let's hope others learn lessons from the USA.
On the 6th of July last month, the headline of all international dailies was the same. "USA has left Bagram airbase in secret!" The very base from where it planned its Afghan adventure. They simply left it without even warning Afghan authorities giving the reason for a possible attack on the base by the Taliban. No wonder it was vandalized later, allegedly by the Taliban to get some weapons. The one thing that is getting clear from events like this is that the Taliban has been gaining significant tangible ground in Afghanistan.
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| US Aircraft leaving Bagram (Source- guardian) |
The corollary of this is there is a power vacuum of legitimate force in Afghanistan. The elected government and its leaders are coming under pressure by repeated violence committed by the Taliban. Whether it's Kabul and Kandahar, the Taliban has been increasing its scale and pace of violence.
Now, the question is who is there to fill this vacuum created by early US withdrawal. Internally, the Afghan government has to consider the Taliban as a major power. Otherwise, the Taliban have ever strong reason to overthrow the government. Externally, the US could be only seen as an influencer in Afghanistan for now. So that tool is also not sharp as President Biden is definitely not willing to send boys again in Afghan for now. The only thing the US tangibly can do is actively coordinate various efforts other stakeholders are making.
A strong consensus is emerging for regional solutions and peace in Afghanistan. Major players are Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, and India. Pakistan has been a half-brother to the USA in its Afghan gamble. As the US leaves, Rawalpindi must be calculating its potential of investments in terms of money and muscle in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban has been a vocal critique of Pakistan. Hence, the Pakistani establishment also needs some handholding.
Two potential hand-holders are Russia and China. China is already concerned about Xinjiang Uyghur connections with the Taliban. It has been engaging with the Taliban for the last few years through channels in Doha. Recently 9 Chinese workers were killed in the Dusa region in Pakistan. China has decided to get directly involved in talks with the Taliban after this. Its position for Taliban is "I will support your house, will not meddle in its affairs, but warning you, if you do something to my house (Xinjiang), it will be not taken lightly."
Chinese neighbor Russian bear is getting concerned about its backyard of Central Asia. Taliban effect could hurt its vital interests especially gas fields in Central Highlands. It's getting involved with other actors in the region. Iran will be happy about US withdrawal as both are right now hard enemies. As it's a Shia country, it's worried about the Taliban's potential Sunni order in Afghanistan.
In this backdrop, India also is facing a conundrum about Afghanistan. It had already closed down the Kandahar consulate in the last month. Salma Dam, a billion-dollar investment of India has also come on the Taliban's radar. As India is entering into direct negotiations with the Taliban, few options New Delhi can consider along with regional powers to solve potential trouble on its northern borders.
There are many Taliban within the Taliban. India has been talking to good Taliban. It has to have to keep in mind the influence others have on the Taliban ladder. Intensive talks might bring some bilateral settlements which would protect investments such as schools, hospitals, etc. Here the idealist posture of not talking to the Taliban because they are fundamentalist and India is secular will not work. India has committed the same mistake earlier and was left out by all powers in the Afghan peace process.
This has to happen along with other regional powers. As the SCO meeting in Dushanbe reflected, Afghanistan is the only menu on the immediate agenda for all central Asian, South Asian, and West Asian especially Iran-like countries. India's External Affairs Minister, Dr.S.Jaishankar had made his Afghan counterpart first, showing India's agenda priorities. The regional solution can be acted upon only variants of strategies of each player are moderated upon. Otherwise, Pakistan will obstruct India in every manner to get involved and many possible scenarios.
Hannah Ardent had said that Power is like acting in concert with others. To set Afghan concerts right, regional powers have to develop a common minimum program for a better future for Afghan people and the region.
The perennial question is, "should India get militarily involved in Afghanistan?" What do you think? Do post in the comment section.
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